By Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker
Caution: This is a fairly long and graph-heavy article. It also should be read while sitting down and without coffee or other beverages in your mouth where they can destroy things if sprayed all over the room, such as a keyboard or monitor.
Boy, we got problems here folks.
Remember the claim that Covid-19 killed 500,000+ Americans to excess!
Well….. did it?
I have a gift which has served me very well over the decades; it is part of what allows me to be an excellent programmer and data analyst. I can look at a data set and intuitively know whether it has discontinuities in it and this leads me to be able to partition it up and work with it more-efficiently than most since I then know where to put my attention when it comes to analysis. Of course I’m not always right when I see something that looks “off” at first, nobody is, but most of the time it proves up. That same capacity means I can look at an assembly-language dump of a program and rather-quickly among a multi-hundred page green-bar listing hone in on, for example, where a tax rate that needs to be changed is likely stored and then develop and iterate on a very good set of guesses on how an unknown machine’s instruction set is likely organized without a processor instruction manual — and thus determine how to successfully change the reference and/or data.
Let’s look at the CDC’s own data, which is the organization telling us what happened, and see if we can find such a data discontinuity without using the Covid data claim itself. That is, let’s look at all the other most-common and thus distinctly-reported and highlighted reasons people die according to the CDC and stack ’em up .vs. 2019, which we will use as our control year, during which there was by their claims no Covid and thus which was the most-recent year we can use for reference.
We should be easily able to see the other morbidities we were all told killed people; all those other conditions that were potentiated by Covid. Remember, according to the CDC only a vanishingly small number of people died with no other cause on their death certificate; ergo, those other causes, if they were not going to occur anyway, will be on the death certificates and materially elevated over the control year.
Indeed the CDC itself says that your base risk of death if you’re under 18 is 1/50,000. This is a very small risk; to put it in perspective the average under 18 person accepts the same risk of death by being present in automobiles over a few months time and accepts it again and again each and every few more months. So these conditions, which are the ones that kill people often enough to be of special note and thus be individually reported out by the CDC over the last decade or so, are the ones that are most likely to elevate risk from Covid-19 to a degree that is material in overall death statistics. This is logical, reasonable, and thus can be considered presumptively correct (in other words the presumption is that it’s right; you’d have to present a sizeable body of scientific evidence to convince me otherwise.)
I remind you that there is no base risk of substance from this virus absent some other set of morbid conditions; you accept more risk than the virus presents to a healthy person, by a substantial amount, simply going to buy groceries in your car over a period of a few months.
In addition note that the late weeks in this data set are incomplete — often badly so. I went on a series of rants last year on my page here when people were saying the current week data said people weren’t dying at all. That’s wasn’t true then and isn’t now; it takes time to get the reports and correlate them.
But it is for this specific reason that when you see indications of a potential signal in data sets like this you damn well better pay attention because by the time the proof is delivered, if you’re doing something that can’t be retracted, you will have screwed an utterly enormous number of people and there will be nothing you can do about it.
Each of these graphs has its “X” axis of calendar weeks. The 2020/2021 line extends beyond “52” because it keeps going into the new year but again remember that the closer you get to “today” the greater the under-reporting risk because the data simply hasn’t gotten to them yet. Nonetheless, four months into 2021 we should expect that basically everything for 2020 is in fact complete. You’ll also notice that while a lot of conditions have seasonal curves to them this is not true for all, and the magnitude, where it is present, varies quite a bit.
We will start our analysis of potential comorbid conditions with cancer. Cancer kills a lot of people. We were told it was a major co-morbidity for Covid-19; ergo, we should see a serious cancer death increase that happened last year and into this year based on the claims of the CDC and others.
Huh? How come there’s no material change of any sort when it comes to the rate of cancer death in the age of Covid? Total additional deaths were 10,928 out of 609,000. That’s statistically non-existent; a 2% increase is very-likely simply associated with our well-established demographic shift toward getting older. If cancer makes you more-likely to die from Covid the elevation in risk is quite small — statistically speaking it doesn’t do much to make Covid-19 more deadly.
Ok, ok, sepsis was allegedly one of the ways that Covid kills you; multiple-organ failure due to septic shock. Therefore there should be a really, really big increase in sepsis over the previous 2019 year, right?
Ok, there was a very small increase – 2,470 deaths, a six percent increase. That’s a fairly significant increase in percentage terms but the total number of people who die from this cause, in whole or part, is quite small. The original weeks, when we didn’t know much of anything about Covid-19, gave us a pretty big spike; about 15% over what it was the previous year, but then it settled down and, while there was a burst of associated death in the summer that was quickly attenuated too. It appears our medical system figured out how to stop sepsis from being a major factor pretty quickly and we stopped people that had The Coof from dying, in part, from sepsis. That doesn’t account for the problem.
Moving on how about my favorite one….. fat-ass disease. You know, Dieeeeeebeeeetus, otherwise known for most people as you keep eating **** for decades and it eventually kills you. Yeah, virtue-signaling, “healthy at any size” bull**** disease? Yes, I know, a small (under 10%) percentage of people with diabetes are Type I and that’s not their fault in any way; Type I is an autoimmune disorder and while you may choose not to manage it other than by chasing carbs with insulin the actual cause isn’t something you did. But Type II is, in the main caused by being a fat-ass, which is 100% voluntary and a decision you can change at any point.
Oh look! The blue line is above the red line, and materially so! In fact in the spring it was really nasty, good for about 700 extra deaths in one week, and it’s been 300 or so on average since. That’s fairly significant but, 300 deaths a week x 52 weeks is… 15,712 corpses or a 15% increase over 2019 levels. Hmmm…… ok, we found some of it but for 90% of the people with the condition it’s a lifestyle choice and not my concern nor is it any of my responsibility to mitigate your increased level of risk if you make said choice.
Next up is Alzheimer’s. You would not expect Covid-19 to have anything to do with that, but forcing people into isolation who are progressively becoming more-compromised both mentally and physically damn well might, essentially killing them through neglect and “I don’t give a **** about you” style prison treatment. We didn’t do any of that, did we?
Covid-19 didn’t kill those people, our governments, our mayors, both Presidents and we did. We’re bastards and we slaughtered innocent old people through intentional neglect because we refused to implement isolation protocols for the workers in the facilities and find ways for those who loved and care for these older Americans to have said care, comfort and contact with their loved ones. We’re monsters and they died as a result of us, not from a virus. But even so…. it doesn’t account for anywhere near the rest of the dead people. Every one of them is sad, but it is what it is. This accounts for 14,567 additional dead bodies, an 11% increase. Some of that is also likely demographics but you can bet we murdered some of those folks — we just didn’t do it with a virus.
Next up — Influenza! You know, our old buddy the flu? Remember, we were told the flu “disappeared.” Did it?
Heh wait a minute….. there were lots of flu deaths in 2020 weren’t there? In fact it was only a bit below baseline this year so far, although in 2021 it looks to be running low. Then again, was I noted, beware the latest weeks; they’re behind, so I can’t draw any firm conclusions. But this much is clear: Did Covid-19 actually kill those people in those other weeks or did the flu kill them? Good question; remember that dying with something doesn’t mean you died of something. Did we autopsy those people to find out which was which? You know damn well we did not and the two are quite-closely related. The total? 5,095 additional dead bodies, a 9% increase.
How about COPD/Emphysema and related things? You’d think those folks would have gotten hammered. After all, someone with either condition has severely-compromised oxygen transport to start with because their lungs are screwed, and we know that people choke to death with Covid, right? So sufferers of both diseases should have gotten it straight up the pooper and fallen like flies.
The death rate from these two diseases in the spring and early summer tracked below 2019? And then again as we went into the winter “death season” from Covid, again, it tracked materially below the baseline? Would someone care to explain this one? Indeed, there were 1,965 fewer deaths, a 1.27% decrease. Since when is COPD, emphysema and other related lung disorders protective against a respiratory virus?
I’ll answer that for you — when they’re using inhaled steroids like Budesonide and those drugs stop the virus from causing serious harm. So tell me again why we haven’t been handing that out to people who get Covid at the first sign of trouble, given that one of the obvious highest-risk groups of people died less often over the last year despite a raging pandemic respiratory virus circulating everywhere? Gee, wouldn’t it have been nice if we used the data we already had via natural experiment across roughly 20 million Americans with an extreme morbidity bearing on respiratory infection to stop people from being killed? We had this data before the fall and winter surge and deliberately refused to use it. Indeed it was that data that prompted the Australian-led study which we refused to sign onto and promote here in the US.
I remind you that if we had done so, and handing that readily-available drug out to anyone testing Covid positive had stopped the death equally as well as it did in the COPD/Emphysema group all of the EUAs would have been illegal to issue and there would be no vaccines or need for them as the death toll would have returned to baseline or below immediately and permanently and the pandemic would have been over. This was an intentional decision as the data was right under everyone’s nose all the way back to the summer months of 2020 including Fauci, Azar, the FDA and the staff of the CDC.
I know, I know! We must have misclassified a bunch of people and they’re in the “other respiratory disease” bucket! That is definitely where the excess death showed up. It has to be; this is a respiratory virus and so that only makes sense. Whew, we found it!
Uh, well, maybe not. There were only 1,838 more dead people in that classification, a 4% increase. Meh.
Ok, ok, I know, I know, seriously immune compromised people, such as those with Lupus, all dropped like flies. Remember, that’s a serious comorbidity too according to….. everyone who is a so-called expert. So all those people died.
Oh wait…. they’re not dead at rates higher than were seen in 2019? WTF? Heh, wait a minute — aren’t most of those people taking Plaquenil? You do know what Plaquenil is, right? Hydroxychloroquine, otherwise known as HCQ. You have to wonder; there’s exactly zero evidence that Covid nailed them at all and most of them are in fact using that eeee-viile drug that the CDC, FDA and Pharma all say doesn’t work. Well if it doesn’t work and being immune compromised is a risk factor how come there is nearly zero excess death among those people? Either being immune compromised is not a comorbidity or HCQ looks to be pretty damned protective of people with a serious comorbidity. Duh. Yes, there were 1,818 more dead people. Count ’em folks, they did not drop like flies; that resulted in only a 3% increase for a condition that was expected to be a death sentence if infected by Covid-19.
The most-likely explanation for their lack of death is the drug a huge percentage of them are using.
That would be two drugs now validated by natural experiment and intentionally ignored by all of these goons eh?
All right, all right, I know, I know….. heart attacks got lots of people. It’s gotta show up somewhere; it must be heart attacks.
Hmmmm…. yes, there was a really, really ugly spike in the first few weeks wasn’t there? About 3,000 of them one week, which is really awful. That, times 53 weeks, would be….. about 150,000 corpses. Except…. it didn’t stay that bad, did it? No, but it was elevated, and materially-so over the entire year. This is problematic though because it goes to what I was talking about the science now saying that spike protein itself is pathogenic, and in the form of causing blood clots. Clots, of course, cause heart attacks and then the question will become are the vaccines going to cause lots of heart attacks too? Better keep an eye on this one because that elevation level is very material, unlike all the rest of them we’ve seen so far. And here we have real death: to be specific, 47,973 more corpses resulting in a 7% increase, so whatever those folks are taking it sure didn’t help. THAT is an ugly number especially considering that heart disease is already up there with the worst of the “why you died” list.
Let’s talk strokes; they’re nasty too in the general sense. So did they take a similar hit?
Uh, yeah they did. A couple hundred extra dead people a week is nothing to sneeze at and also bears watching in the coming months because once again you can’t tell much about the most-recent weeks yet…. or can you? In 2020 we did have 12,404 more fatal strokes and that too is an ugly number of slightly larger magnitude in percentage terms than for heart attacks, an 8% increase.
What’s the common thread between heart attacks and strokes? Clotting.
And finally, the “aw crap we don’t know what it was” column:
Note that in 2020 this accounted for a grand total of 9,635 more bodies. But in 2021, well…..
Now a good amount of that disappears back into the other classifications over time, so setting off nuclear alarm sirens isn’t quite called for yet. But anyone who tells you that there’s no safety signal when you have a very large spike that is now nearly four months old and unresolved into other cataloged conditions has rocks in their head. That’s just flat-out bull**** considering that we now have over a year’s worth of experience with Covid-19.
Yes, there’s backlog, there’s late reporting and there’s updated reports that come in over time. All true and maybe that finding will all disappear back into the other charts over the next six months or so. But by God it had better, because if it does not and the so-called “authorities” ignore it there’s your evidence, correlated exactly with when we started stabbing people en-masse, that people were dying of those stabs and if it continues then the presumptive linked causal factor is going to be established since there is no other material “unknown” that has materially changed during that time period.
I still can’t find 500,000 excess deaths caused by Covid in 2020; they’re simply not there among the diseases the CDC reported out and since the base risk is 1/50,000 even across half the population being infected we could only account for 3,000 deaths. It is thus clear that if in fact Covid-19 has killed anywhere near the number of people claimed those other morbid conditions, all of which are serious diseases standing alone, have to account for the increase between them.
Indeed the most-common, by far (40% of additional deaths by disease) were due to heart attacks and the next was diabetes at 13%. Between diabetes and heart attacks, both almost-exclusively due to lifestyle choices and thus your personal decisions, 53% of the excess 120,475 deaths are accounted for. If we add in strokes, which also are largely lifestyle-related then we’re at about 2/3rds.
Among those diseases that are allegedly “the biggest comorbid factors” I can find only 120,475 more deaths that Covid-19 may have contributed to and which included those diseases as a causal factor in total. Did Covid-19 cause all of those 120,000 additional deaths or were they caused by, in the case of diabetes, strokes and heart attacks for example, the additional 50lbs that a material percentage of people put on during the lockdowns (and over 20lbs on average!) from eating takeout trash full of fast carbs and being involuntarily cooped up in their homes? We do not know so this can only describe an upper boundary or caused mortality — not a lower one.
This analysis doesn’t mean even more people didn’t die with Covid, but an alleged “Covid” death that wasn’t accompanied by one of the CDC’s specifically-called out diseases. The CDC “selects” these specific categories and ICD codes, I remind you, because they’re particularly large percentages of the whole among diseases that kill people. When the CDC says that only a few thousand people died of Covid alone this data is rather interesting wouldn’t you say?
After all being shot while Covid positive, or ODing, dying in a car wreck or wrapping your motorcycle around a telephone pole in no way implies you died of Covid, does it? To so-imply or state is to deliberately deceive the public and inculcate fear; it is a lie.
Yet the media and government have in fact said it did because they have repeatedly claimed more than four times the number of people who the CDC links to specific diseases in fact died “of” Covid-19.
The CDC’s own data proves they lied.
Further, they claim that we had “no evidence” for the effectiveness of repurposed drugs; that’s also a bald lie in that there are at least two which are specifically used en-masse by millions in the group of people in two of these morbidity buckets and both of them saw materially less death than was expected. In other words we had very strong observational evidence across a huge body of people that these drugs are protective and did nothing with that information. Had we acted and had those drugs proved effective the EUAs for vaccines would have been illegal, there would have been no need or desire for vaccines at all and a huge number of people who are currently dead would still be alive.
To be blunt: By the CDC’s own data the FDA, NIH, CDC, Fauci and others lied and as a direct result people died.
Do you think they’re being honest about the safety of the jabs given these facts? After all it’s your ass since they made sure you couldn’t sue or prosecute anyone if they get caught lying again.
PS: How long before, if the “unknown” data verifies, Mr. Puddinhead is forced to go on TV and eulogize all those who died due to taking shots predicated on a bogus premise, specifically one crafted before we had the science on the fact that the spike protein itself is pathogenic, as is now known — and thus any such attempt would inevitably harm or kill a significant number of people — more than the non-morbid percentage who die from natural infection, since their body is able to prevent the infection from becoming systemic.