Again, By The Math – Covid ‘Dangers’

By Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

Fact: Covid is more dangerous to some people than others.

Fact: The “deadly pre-conditions” for Covid are, as defined by the NYC Coroner, “diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, asthma, kidney disease, liver disease and morbid obesity.”  Most of those who died had two or more of these conditions and the most-prevalent ones were heart disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease.  All three are directly linked to lifestyle choices in the vast majority of cases. Only Type I diabetes, which is 5% percent of those with diabetes (and is an autoimmune disorder) is not lifestyle caused.  The others are caused directly by being a fat ass, smoking, a refusal to exercise, stuffing one’s face with fast carbohydrates and overconsumption of alcohol.  Heart disease alone kills more than half a million Americans every year and virtually all of it is caused by personal choice.

Fact: Virtually all of the severe and fatal Covid-19 risk is due to lifestyle choices and is nobody else’s responsibility.  On the above list only asthma is not caused in the huge majority to nearly all cases by lifestyle decisions.  In other words virtually everyone at severe risk of death from Covid-19 has intentionally and personally abused their body over an extended period of time, knowing full well that what they were doing was dangerous and in fact might kill them.

Fact: In addition we know this disease, as with all respiratory viruses, has a strong link to Vitamin D deficiency.  In fact multiple studies have shown that virtually everyone who gets severe Covid-19 or dies is severely Vitamin D deficient.  Vitamin D deficiency is also a personal choice; you can obtain adequate Vitamin D through outdoor exposure to the sun in the summer months, and through inexpensive supplementation (pennies a day) the rest of the time.  This likely explains the higher severe rate among people of color in that the melanin in their skin requires much more outside exposure to obtain adequate Vitamin D levels and, above certain latitudes, makes it effectively impossible.  We deliberately did not tell people this yet we knew it was true back in the first months of the pandemic.

Fact: Forcing people indoors makes severe Covid-19 more likely rather than less, particularly for those not using Vitamin D supplements simply by keeping them from going outside for ordinary activities.  Lockdowns, school closures, canceling recess and similar is exactly backwards.

Now for some math.

The base risk of death according to the CDC from Covid-19 by age stratification is as follows, by their “best guess”:

0-19 years: 3/100,000
20-49 years: 2/10,000
50-69 years: 5/1,000
70+ years: 5.4/100

That is a wildly divergent risk.  To put perspective on this the risk of death from Chicken Pox, which we used to intentionally expose children to (myself included), is somewhere between 2-4/100,000 in children or statistically identical to Covid-19.  This was not a disaster and still is not; the varicella vaccine is in fact only “useful” because, as with Covid, you are more likely to get seriously harmed or killed if you get Chicken Pox when you’re older.  In fact, you’re 25x more likely.  Therefore, since we have stopped the Chicken Pox parties with crazy “vax everyone for a nearly-harmless disease” instead of only offering the varicella vaccine to those who had not gotten it naturally by the time they reached puberty the only rational decision for a parent is to give their kids the jab because you can no longer take them across the street for natural infection.  Thus my daughter got the jab — not because I believe it’s superior (it’s not; both do the same thing) but because by sticking a thumb on the scale and lying to people the government made the math run that direction and there was nothing I could do about it.

By the way there are approximately 60 million children under 19 in the US.  Were every one of them to get Covid-19 we would expect 1,800 deaths.  Every death is sad, but I think you can determine exactly how big a disaster 1,800 dead would be compared against 400,000.

It would appear from the CDC data that age is a monstrous determinant of risk.

But, when you look at the data sets of who dies you find that is an intentionally misleading table on the CDC’s web page. In other words they are lying too and doing it on purpose in order to run a panic-porn production rather than inform.

Let’s look at the NYC Coroner data and from it determine relative risk weightings for different age brackets based on the consequence of personal choice as detailed above.

The age brackets do not line up exactly but it’s close enough.  Further, having followed this table from NYC from April when it first appeared the percentage split has remained consistent, thus the “pending” determinations are not going to skew the resulting ratios to any statistically-significant degree.

From 18-24 through 35-44 the number of dead in the NYC table without one or more of those underlying conditions is 24.  With one or more of them is 610.  Therefore the relative risk is 25x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

From 45-54 through 65-74 the number of dead in the NYC table without one or more of the conditions is 92.  With one or more it is 8,633.  Therefore the relative risk is 94x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

From 75+ in the NYC data the total number of dead without one or more of the conditions is FIVE.  With one or more the number is 8,999.  Therefore the relative risk is an utterly astounding 1,800x higher if you are a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

Now let’s derate the CDC “base risk by age” numbers based on personal choice factors because the CDC does not separate it out on purpose and see what happens to the relative risk based on age and thus, whether age is a determinant of risk or whether YOUR PERSONAL CHOICES are responsible for essentially all serious Covid-19 risk.

0.0002 / 25 = 0.000008 which is less than the base risk of an under-19 year old, eight in one million is the risk for a person from 18-44 who is not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

0.005 / 94 = 0.00005 or approximately equal to the risk of an under-19 year old, 5/100,000 for a person up to the age of 74 if you are not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking boozer.

0.054 / 1800 = 0.00003 or exactly the same risk of an under-19 year older if you are 75+ and are not and were not a fat-ass, diabetic smoking BOOZER!

In other words on the math using only official government data from both the NYC coroners office and the CDC the entirety of the “excess death” from Covid-19 is almost-entirely due to voluntary lifestyle CHOICES.


Absent those lifestyle choices Covid-19 is far less lethal than the common flu; the common flu kills young people and prime-age adults with no morbidities at a higher rate than Covid-19 does.

More importantly let’s compare this risk to something nobody thinks a minute about: Driving or riding in a car.

The base 3/100,000, or “30 in a million” per year risk from Covid-19, assuming once you get it your immunity is worthless after 12 months, which we have every reason to believe is complete crap in that you likely have at least partial protection for years into the future, that is, said risk is an annual risk — is approximately equal to that which you take by traveling 7,500 miles in a car.

The average person in the US travels approximately 13,500 miles a year in an automobile which means that your risk of dying from Covid-19, at a base level if you did not intentionally destroy yourself, is approximately equal to that you accept every six and a half months or so by using an automobile for transportation, either as a driver or passenger.  In other words you take approximately double the base Covid-19 risk of death every single year without batting an eyelash.


Had this disease struck in 1918 when almost nobody was a fat-ass diabetic it would have killed statistically nobody.

Worse, all of this is without taking any personal mitigating steps such as using a Vitamin D supplement and, if infected or at high risk and exposed, Ivermectin, while the evidence shows that both are highly effective in either preventing or mitigating the disease.  In fact the evidence is that Ivermectin is equally effective as a vaccine, we have a 30+ year safety record showing fewer side effects and it costs pennies.

JAMA and others have chimed in saying there’s “insufficient evidence” and, even worse, “evidence of conflicts of interest.”  Ok, so why didn’t the NIH run these studies starting back in March?  Neither vitamins or cheap, off-patent medications have a strong profit motive for someone to fork up the few millions of dollars it takes to run a decent, large-scale trial.  Why the hell do we fund non-profit and government organizations like the NIH, Vanderbilt, IHME, Johns Hopkins and similar if they are not going to use their tax supported and/or exempt status to find causal links when a new disease hits and there’s no profit motive in private industry doing so with existing potential therapeutics and preventative measures?

Biden knows all this, by the way.  Hours after signing an executive order demanding masks on federal property he himself, who is not a diabetic fat-ass waltzed around the Lincoln Memorial, which is federal property, without wearing a mask.  Then he did it again while signing his “executive orders” and was immediately followed by both his spokeswoman and Fauci, neither of whom wore a mask either.  In other words he knows damn well how this risk stratification actually works and that masks are worthless.

**** all of them and the entire Biden administration sideways; the “administration of truth” has instead doubled down on bull****.

Don’t think this is limited to Biden either.  Neither Trump or anyone else was willing to tell the people of this nation the truth: No, you are not healthy at “any size”, you are in fact putting yourself at serious risk for disease and death through your own voluntary actions.  Over 600,000 Americans kill themselves every year via heart disease and virtually all of it is caused by lifestyle.

If you were a fat-ass a year ago when Covid first started you’ve had a year to become less of a fat-ass.  You could have done what I did ten years ago and went from fat-ass in process (and likely diabetic-in process too) to not-fat-ass with completely-normal insulin sensitivity.  My walk down that road took eight months.  For those who say you won’t stick to it and the attempt will leave you worse off than if you did nothing here I am ten years later; you’re 100% full of crap; that bull**** is nothing more than making excuses for your own personal self-destruction.

You decided to make all of these choices and your decisions and their consequences do not create any obligation of any sort upon anyone else, ever, period.  I am not responsible for your decision to smoke, eat or drink yourself (or both) half to death and I owe you nothing if you do so.

It is a personal choice and I respect your choice but that is where it ends.  Your choice, your ass.  The minute you use the consequences of your personal choice as a cudgel to try to impose mandates on others that demand must and will be refused.

Our government and health care “system” has deliberately refused to discuss both this set of facts and the mitigating steps anyone could and still can take to reduce the risk of Covid-19 and other deadly diseases and conditions, laying the responsibility for each person’s personal decisions at the foot of said person.  Instead we claim there is a “collective” responsibility in effect telling me that I have to pay in the form of restricted freedoms and lifestyle because you decided of your own free will to destroy your body.

That position is exactly identical to demanding that if you’re an alcoholic and thus might die of DTs I am required to buy your next bottle of Gin with my last $20.

Let me make my position on that perfectly clear in case the above is not sufficient: **** YOU.

PS: If you’re not white-hot angry with this bull**** and done with being lied to take a look here.  If masks work — at all — come up with a scientific explanation for the reason that Japan has a 24.28 death rate for influenza and pneumonia while the United States has a 10.85 rate.  They wear masks all the damned time and historically speaking we never do yet their rate of influenza and pneumonia death is more than double ours.  I’ve been pointing this table out, by the way, since this crap was first run here in the US.  They’re lying about masks working too and they all know it.

Karl Denninger