By Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker
Claim: Covid-19 has produced a crazy number of excess deaths, mostly among old people who were spry and wonderful, they were not going to die anyway, this horrible disease got them and you evil younger *******s who won’t wear a mask are why they’re dead.
Well, let’s see. There’s a very nice statistically-consistent set of lines here from one year to the next. It’s a many-year pattern. 2020 was the year in which we killed Grandma by being insensitive *******s who wouldn’t lock down and by God, we all wanted to travel and go see our family for Thanksgiving, and we don’t wear masks, and Jesus we’re pigs and Granny’s dead because of it. We should all be ashamed.
Except….. there’s no dislocation in that data set, is there? Um, that’s a problem. It’s actually a very serious problem because if old people were dying at a materially-excess rate this year then you’d see it in that data; that nice top line would decreaseinstead of following the very same pattern it has for the last four years and being part of a parallel set.
Dead is dead; how you code something on a certificate or in a database makes no difference if I’m dead. There’s still only one body and if they were piling up at an excess rate for real among Americans older than 65, as is claimed, it would show up right there in that chart.
If you find that above graph a bit hard to follow here’s the same data visualized slightly differently; monthly and then with a 12 month moving average on it.
What are the bumps? COLA increases in benefits at the start of the year. And then people die. Then it happens again, and people die. This year it happened and the same number of people, statistically-speaking, died as occurred previously.
That’s a check register folks; nobody tries to cheat on a check register because you get caught instantly. If there was actual excess death it would immediately show up in that graph. Social Security never pays anyone beyond the date of death. Ever.
But then it gets better…
See, when people die there’s a specific payment that, in some (but not all cases), occurs. And….. well….. while the data set is not yet complete (last two months data is not in; nothing for December and November’s is an estimate as it’s not done yet) where is the wild dislocation-style spike that would absolutely be present if, in fact, all these old people who shouldn’t have died did as a result of all of those younger people who are spreading this evil disease all over the place because we hate Grandma?
When you lie in one data set you have to be very careful that someone else, in some other agency, also has a data set containing the same people and they won’t lie because they can’t; the money either goes out or doesn’t, and whether it goes out or doesn’t does not depend on whether someone gets sick or not.
It only goes out or doesn’t go out if someone is either alive or dead, and it stops going out immediately when they’re dead. I know this because literally within days of my mother dying they knew and sent out a letter saying so.
There’s more coming with regard to said data impossibilities folks, including one I’ve been tracking for a while.
The problem with lying is that eventually you lose track of the lies, and as soon as that happens you’ll contradict yourself and get caught.