By Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker
The UCLA team created maps of movement and found that on average each nursing home is connected to seven others through staff movement. Limiting nursing home employees to one facility could mean fewer COVID-19 infections — but that would hurt the workforce of people who say they work multiple jobs because of low wages.
Can we stop with the cock-n-bull story about Covid being about human life and suffering?
More than 84,000 residents and staff of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have died from COVID-19 across the U.S., representing 40% of all coronavirus fatalities in the country, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s most recent analysis. (Kaiser Health News is an editorially independent program of the foundation.)
By the way, nursing homes have about 0.5% of the population of the United States. So on a ratable basis being in a nursing home means you are eighty times more likely to die from Covid than you should be based on your population representation. And by the way, that’s not adjusted for life expectancy; on a per-month basis you’re not eighty times more likely to die from Covid, it is something like 10,000 times more likely Covid will kill you if you’re in a nursing home on a month-by-month basis!
What is the multiplier if I drive with a BAC over 0.1%? 0.08 is legally intoxicated, but nearly everyone who is involved in a fatal accident or is arrested for DUI has a level well north of 0.1. The median in one study I read said it was 0.15. Having a little portable breathalyzer that I keep in my car to not drive while intoxicated, and having given one to my daughter when she turned 21 for the same reason, I can tell you with a high degree of certainty that 0.15 is ****ing smashed.
But — I bet if I was to drive with a 0.15 BAC I would be less than EIGHTY TIMES more likely to cause or be in an injury (or death) accident than while driving sober. Far more likely than if sober? Sure. But the statistics are clear; alcohol is involved in a very significant percentage of fatal car accidents but by no means is it statistically all of them, which is what this data substantiates.
I remind you that I wrote on this back in March and April, when the pattern became clear. If we wanted to stop Covid from killing people the most-effective means to do so was to rent RVs or FEMA-style trailers and put them in the parking lots of nursing homes, locking the employees on the property and paying them whatever amount of money it took to convince them to do so and not quit.
We knew in March that Covid was in feces and 40% of the nursing home residents are incontinent. It is impossible to prevent the bug from spreading once it gets in there unless you have extraordinary infection control that extends to all clothing, bedding and other items in the room that can be potentially cross-contaminated. That is nearly impossible in shared rooms where one of the residents is incontinent, and the ventilation systems and bathrooms make it even worse since any aerosolized feces is going to get all over the bathroom and inevitably infect the other resident.
Exactly zero nursing homes in the United States are set up to deal with this, and there is no reasonable way to change that on a short-term basis, nor can you realistically do it at all for the money available. Never mind that the median life expectancy for someone who is admitted to one of these places is six months. Yes, some people live in them for years, but the median is six months.
She doesn’t want to work at multiple nursing homes, but her rent is $2,200 a month, and her low pay and limited hours at each nursing home make multiple jobs a necessity.
“I don’t want to get sick. But we need to work. We need to eat, we need to pay rent. That’s just how it is,” Tapia says.
So rather than face reality — that we, the people created this system, we funded it, we built warehouses where we shovel old people who we don’t like very much and don’t want to deal with, and did so at a price where a living wage cannot be made by working at one single location and, God Forbid, staying in a trailer for the next six months and then we shut down schools, we closed businesses, we closed bars, we canceled concerts and destroyed people’s lives after we created the conditions in which this alleged “pandemic” would kill medically brittle people on purpose and for profit.
Of course what do they all say? “Increase access to PPE”, right?
Nice try, no donut.
The problem is structural and so the lawyers and policy wonks can’t solve it without structural changes, which are not going to happen in the short term because they can’t, and they won’t happen in the long term either, because Covid will be over.
But folks, this is a math problem when you get down to it.
And it’s also a fact that we knew all of this and I reported on it when Kirkland happened, and it was obvious what was going to happen if we did not take care of it immediately. I so noted.
Well, rather than take care of it we closed the nation, we’re still screaming about masks which do exactly nothing and in fact make it worse.
Because to reach suppression of the virus you need a sufficient part of the population to have immunity. Immunity can only be acquired three ways:
1. You can get the bug and survive.
2. You can get vaccinated and the vaccine doesn’t hurt you.
3. You’re already partially or entirely immune due to cross-reaction with other viruses.
We know a material amount of #3 exists in the population but there is no cheap and fast test for it. It can be tested but it’s both slow and expensive, and thus mass-surveillance is impractical. At present there is no #2 either, and while so-called “Warp Speed” vaccines will show up sometime toward the end of the year it will be years before we truly know they’re safe and how effective, and in any event distribution will not be widespread before the summer of 2021. If you’re healthy you’re insane to take any vaccine until full safety information is available, peer-reviewed and published. That will be years from now.
That leaves infection.
Any mitigation that reduces the number of infections contracted by people who the virus almost-never actually harms dramatically increases the total number of people who die because it skews the ratio of medically-brittle people higher in the total case count. It’s basic math: Ax + By = C. If you reduce “Ax” then “By” MUST INCREASE. You learned this in first-year Algebra.
If you were born prior to the 1990s you know damn well how to deal with a virus that has far less lethality split than Covid19 — because your mother did, and so did her mother, and so did hers.
The spread between chicken pox causing serious illness or death is about 4:1 between children and adults. That is, your mother intentionally took you across the street to play with the kid who had it, infecting you on purpose because while there was risk you would get very sick or even die from doing that if you got the bug when you were an adult the risk was four times higher that you’d have a very bad time.
Covid19 doesn’t have a 4:1 ratio between young people and old people.
It has a 100:1 or more ratio and among those under 15 compared against those over 65 it’s more like a 10,000:1 or more ratio!
Your mother and every single Doctor knew damn well what the right thing to do was and so you went next door when the kid there had it and played with him or her. I did. I got it. I recovered like nearly everyone else does. And I’m perfectly safe to go help someone else who has it for that reason.
Today we stick your kid with a needle instead. Is that superior? Probably. But that vaccine has more than two decades of use and took a hell of a long time to prove it was safe and effective. It’s likely a good trade-off, especially because the option to take your kid next door no longer exists as in all probability the kid next door got vaccinated, and thus the cases that do happen are more likely to happen to you as an adult.
But there is no Covid vaccine today.
Every single infection taken by someone who the virus cannot hurt is a public good; it increases the amount of immunity in the population and reduces the risk of spread to others because an infected person who comes into contact with another previously-infected person cannot give the bug to them as they’re immune.
My mother did not just take me across the street because I was at higher risk if I didn’t get Chicken Pox until I was 20, 30 or 50. She also did it because everyone else in the damned country was also at higher risk if I was not immune, and I’d become immune by getting it.
We killed close to a hundred thousand people, and quite-probably as many as 80% of those who have died thus far through mask orders, “social distancing”, closing schools and now we are throwing college-age kids out of college for doing what is in the best interest of everyone in the community — being college-age kids, going to the kegger and getting the virus because it is extraordinarily unlikely they will be seriously harmed by that but every infection they take is one your grandmother, who is 100x more likely to die, does not have to take.
This is a math problem and we handled it properly and with our heads held high when it came to Chicken Pox, which I remind you did kill people from time to time, including occasionally a kid.
Let’s put some numbers to this. We have had an alleged 200,000, more or less, Americans die allegedly “from” Covid. We know that number is bull****, because included in that figure is documented proof that thousands who wrecked their motorcycle and died, or ODd, or committed suicide, are considered “Covid” deaths. So says the CDC. But let’s ignore that for a minute and just take at face value 200,000 dead Americans, even though we know that number is crap.
What percentage of Americans are over 65? About 13% nationally, with many counties (including mine) at roughly 20%.
There are a grand total of 13 people under the age of 15 who the CDC says died “with” COVID19 out of the whole. THIRTEEN.
Out of those under 45 there are a grand total of 2,746 or approximately 1.5% of the total who have died. Most of those were likely people with serious underlying conditions who got Covid at a very bad time (e.g. while undergoing cancer treatment and thus had a trashed immune system.)
Since the current CFR (among symptomatic cases) is about 1.5% in the Untied States this means if you get Covid19 and are under the age of 45 your odds of being ok is 99.98%.
If you are under 15 your odds of being ok are 99.99992%.
In other words if we intentionally infected every person under the age of 15 we would expect to see a grand total of 52 dead kids across the entire United States.
And we would achieve nearly 60 million infections, all of which confer immunity and which is about 18% of the population.
Given cross-reaction immunity we would have stopped this bug with 52 dead kids.
From the point that we achieved that community spread to everyone else would be a sporadic and “once in a while” thing; widespread infection and death would be impossible because there would not be enough other people to get sick.
We murdered your Grandmother and Father and we’re still doing it because instead of encouraging kids to be kids with open schools, open playgrounds, having them all congregate together and “share the love” where it is wildly improbable that anything bad will happen we instead closed schools, demanded they wear masks, put up dividers and worse, closed raves, kicked kids out of college for having keggers and similar.
We should be holding raves, complete with mosh pits and free-flowing kegs of beer for anyone of college age up to about 30 every single Friday night. We should not put up dividers and close schools we should instead put all the desks together and mandate every kid hug every other kid in the building every single day. If the teachers are scared because they ate themselves into a 400lb mass of diabetes then FIRE THEM ALL and replace them with young adults who are healthy and at not much more risk than the kids.
Your screaming school teachers killed your grandmother.
Your governor who forbade young people from being young people and being in immediate personal contact with each other killed your grandmother.
Your Mayor who mandated “masks” and “social distancing” killed your grandmother.
Nancy Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell and Donald Trump killed your grandmother.
So did Anthony Fauci.
Every ******ned one of these people was taken across the street when they were kids, as was I, to get Chicken Pox! On purpose. And every single one of them knows why that was done.
This is math problem and every one of these **********s in our government and alleged “doctors” know ******n well I’m right.
So did your mother, and she neither had or needed a medical degree. She simply needed to be able to do basic arithmetic.
Please explain to me why every single one of the Governors, Mayors and so-called “experts” haven’t been ejected from the public square and what we knew was true for well more than a hundred years done instead? We knew it and we did it for a bug that had less skew in risk by a factor of ten thousand times than this one does. We did it precisely because of that skew.
And by the way, this is what Japan did. They left the kids and young adults alone and guess what — while people are getting Covid there nobody, statistically speaking, is dying and Tokyo has 50% seroprevalence.
May I point out that this means that of the 96,000 Covid “infections” if all of them are in Tokyo (they’re not) more than one hundred people have actually had the virus for each one that has been counted as a “case”!
ALL of the so-called “experts” predicted disaster in Japan. There was no disaster. Those so-called “experts” weren’t simply wrong — they were maliciously wrong. This malice has spread and been enforced world-wide with damned few exceptions.
If we had Japan’s case fatality rate about 4,500 Americans would be dead, not 200,000+. But there would be no emergency, nobody would have lost their job, there would be no mandates, schools would be fully open with no dividers and mask orders and nobody would have made hundreds of billions of dollars either including *******s like Jeff Bezos and the pharmaceutical, medical and testing companies.
THE GOVERNMENT KILLED YOUR GRANDMOTHER ON PURPOSE FOR POLITICAL REASONS — AND IT DOES NOT MATTER WHETHER YOUR GOVERNOR OR MAYOR IS A REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, NOR WHETHER YOU LOCAL GOVERNMENT IS. THEY HAVE ALL DONE IT, IT IS INTENTIONAL, THEY KNOW ******NED WELL WHAT THE MATH IS ON THIS AND THEY ALSO KNOW DAMN WELL HOW TO HANDLE A BUG LIKE THIS BECAUSE ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THEM ARE OLD ENOUGH TO HAVE LIVED AND PRACTICED SAME FIRST HAND!
THEY DID THE EXACT OPPOSITE KNOWING FULL WELL THAT DOING SO WOULD LEAD TO OVER 200,000 DEAD PEOPLE. THIS WAS ALL DONE SO THE MEDICAL AND PHARMACEUTICAL “BUSINESS” COULD MAKE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS AND TO DO THAT YOUR PARENTS AND GRANDPARENTS HAD TO BE LEFT AT RISK TO DIE.
YOU ARE STILL PUTTING UP WITH THIS BULL**** AND WE KNEW EVERY BIT OF IT WAS TRUE IN MARCH.
WHERE DID WHAT MADE AMERICA TRULY GREAT — THAT WHICH LED TO 1776, THE CAPACITY TO UNDERSTAND BASIC ALGEBRA THEN TELL THE GOVERNMENT TO **** OFF AND MEAN IT THROUGH WHATEVER MEANS ARE NECESSARY — DISAPPEAR TO?
The literal last line of my book Leverage published in 2012 by Wiley is this: The math is never wrong.