Innumeracy: The REAL Killer

By Karl Denninger, The Market Ticker

******n the American public and so-called “leaders” to Hell.

Every single one of the so-called “experts” who has a bunch of letters after his or her name can be presumed to have passed Algebra in High School.  Thus their deceptions are not only intentional they’re malicious and murderous.

The CDC publishes death data by age cohort from Covid-19 without influenza.

There are 94,396 such deaths according to them.

Of those thirteen, or one in 7,261, are in children under 15 years of age.

One in 637 are in children below or at college age, that is, 24 and younger.

One in 1.29 are in persons 65 and older.

The relative hazard ratio is thus roughly five thousand times higher if you are 65 or older compared with under 15.

The relative hazard ratio is five hundred times higher if you are 65 or older compared with those under 24.

Every time you shift a single infection from a person under the age of 15 to someone over 65 you cause 5,000 times as many deaths.

Every time you shift a single infection from a person at or under college age to someone over 65 you cause 500 times as many deaths.

For every unit of risk that causes one college student to die you kill 500 seniors.

For every unit of risk that causes one school age kid to die you kill 5,000 seniors.

Immunity can only be acquired three ways:

1. Cross-reaction from some other infection; we know this exists to a material degree but we do not know what virus(es) cause it.  There are myriad old people who got Covid, as documented by test, and never even sneezed while their husband or wife of equivalent age and morbidity status was killed.  This is likely why one of them was killed and the other had no symptoms at all.

2. Immunity acquired from vaccination.   There is no vaccine at present and there will be no fully tested vaccine for years — roughly five years, to be exact.  No amount of testing can accelerate this timeline.  The reason is that the risks from vaccines frequently come from what is called “ADE” (Antibody-dependent enhancement) and there is no way to know what other infectious agents may trigger it, or if the original virus vaccinated against may trigger it.  Only time will tell us if that happens.

3. Infection by the virus.  This one is obvious.  

The issue is who is going to take the cases in #3, not whether they will be taken.  Until immunity is established and there are only three ways to do it the risk of logarithmic expansion of cases exists.  As I pointed out just before Sturgis that state had an insufficient viral infection rate to prevent that, and it happened.  Wisconsin and Michigan, both of which tried to prevent the spread of the virus through various measures including mask mandates, failed to do so and suffered the same fate.  Hawaii thought they could prevent it too when they had well under 1% tested positive rate and were wrong; they took a 10x logarithmic spike.

Attempts to prevent those cases from being taken have failed repeatedly.  They have failed here.  They have failed in Europe.  They have failed everywhere it was tried.  You cannot trust the data out of China as they lie like rugs but Japan proved that even with strong social mask protocols, which incidentally fail to stop them from having an influenza death rate double that of the United States the virus still circulated freely.  In fact it appears that Tokyo has 50% seroprevalence and thus while there are still cases there are few hospitalizations and deaths because the much-feared logarithmic detonation cannot occur.

Read that again: IN JAPAN, WITH A STRONG SOCIAL MASK WEARING CULTURE BUT CERTAINLY NOT A UNIVERSAL ONE THE VIRUS MANAGED TO INFECT HALF OF THE PEOPLE IN TOKYO!

But who got it?

Those who, on balance, it could not harm.

In fact it appears that Tokyo has had one hundred or more infections for every documented “case.”  Our number was “accepted” to be 10:1 but it looks to me like the real number is likely lower because we shut down schools, we closed colleges, we closed raves and concerts where young people congregate in close proximity, we throw kids out of college for going to or throwing a kegger and we now mandate all sorts of separation and other bull**** for children who are 5,000 times less likely to be hurt and who, if they get infected, contribute to population immunity and thus suppression of spread.

Our government and other governments that took these measures, by scaring the bejeezus out of young people and inhibiting their normal social intercourse and the fact that as a natural matter they tend to have many more close contacts and thus spread viruses much more effectively than older people deliberately and maliciously killed your Grandmother.

That this spread in “bad outcomes” existed was known in March.  It is not “new knowledge.”

THIS IS A MATH PROBLEM.

We could have deliberately taken sixty million infections in the United States among young people, amounting to about 20% of the total US population at the cost of about 1,200 lives.

The other 200,000 who are dead would not be.

Now we would never be completely successful in such a shift but Japan tells us what we should have expected if we left society alone and told older people to take precautions but not younger people who were unlikely to be harmed, closed nothing and imposed no mandates — because that’s exactly what Japan did.

If you extrapolate Japan’s death rate to the United States, where Japan has ~126 million citizens and we have ~330 million, their 1,700 deaths would be about 4,500 dead Americans.

We have taken more than 45 TIMES that number of dead.

Those extra deaths, while not all a consequence of the mandates is not nearly as clear on a health status position as you might think.  Japan, for example, has a roughly 10% diabetes prevalence, which is only slightly better than the US (10.5%)  The US has 29% of the population with hypertension, while Japan has slightly more (~33%) and of those only about 25% are controlled to 140/90 or better.

In other words no, it’s not co-morbidities that saved the Japanese.

It’s that they did not shut down schools, close places where young people congregate such as playgrounds, concerts, bars, nightclubs, raves and similar and by doing so deliberately shift infections to older, sicker people.  They went where the science told them to go — tell the older and sicker to be careful but everyone else went about their lives instead of inculcating fear and allowing tyranny to fester.

We, including jackwads such as Fauci, Birx, our President, Governors Bill Lee, Cuomo, Witless, Wolf and others, along with so-called “experts” at places like Vanderbilt, specifically John Graves who you can contact at john.graves@vanderbilt.edu if you’d like to express your opinion of him, killed your Grandmother through intentionally omitting in their “recommendations” that this disease has a skew in who it harms that ranges from 500:1 to 5,000:1 or more and thus it is flat-out mass-homicide to do anything that shifts infections toward the older and sicker members of our population.

Karl Denninger